JGS Vol 16, num 1
Md. Jahidul Islam, Md Shahriar Abdullah, Faria Islam Mim
BANGLADESH UNDERWATER: EXPLORING GLOBAL AND COUNTRY-LEVEL PERSPECTIVE OF FLOODING
Floods have become an alarming regularity in riverine Bangladesh, resulting in loss of life, collapsed agriculture, and damage to property. The purpose of urgent measures required in the flooding crisis in Bangladesh is to reduce the to minimize floods, health hazards, and economic impact. Available data highlights the widespread occurrence and associated risk factors for flooding crisis in Bangladesh. According to WHO (2020), the global impact of floods between 1998–2017 affected over 2 billion people, underscoring the severity and widespread nature of this natural disaster. Bangladesh experiences four types of flooding: flash floods, local rainfall floods, monsoon river floods, and storm-surge floods. Drawing on lessons fr om past flood events, the article explores adaptation mechanisms and policy interventions aimed at enhancing resilience and sustainable development. The governments, local administrations and youth are requested to address the current crisis by coordinating and integrating several effective efforts to prevent financial damage and deaths due to flood.
Egor Fain
COUPVOLUTION IN SUDAN IN 2019 AS AN EPISODE OF WORLD SYSTEM RECONFIGURATION
In recent decades, the world has undergone significant changes. These transformations have different forms, but one of the most prominent ones is revolution. Revolutionary events of the 21st century are very diverse and usually come in waves. The revolution in Sudan in 2019 is one of those events: it is not just a revolution or just a coup, it is a coupvolution and also part of the Arab Spring 2.0. This article argues that the events in Sudan have great significance for the reconfiguration of the world-system because they are a coupvolution, a concept that combines the features of revolution and military coup. Thus, they present a new type of revolutionary events which highlight the specifics of modern revolutionary movements and hold the potential to significantly affect the world. Sudanese coupvolution also led to a power struggle in Sudan which affects the regional and global political landscape. It also attracts various regional and global actors who try to influence the outcome of this struggle and get better position in the region. Thus, coupvolution led to Sudan becoming one of the main stages of the reconfiguration. This article attempts to identify the main drivers of the Sudanese coupvolution, while also comparing it to other coupvolutions that have occurred over the past decade.
Vladimir V. Klimenko, Alexey G.Tereshin, Olga V. Mikushina
BUMPY ROAD TO CLIMATE NEUTRALITY: WHY 1.5 OC THRESHOLD IS CLOSE AND WHY TEMPERATURE OVERSHOOT WILL BE LONG
The possible consequences of the decisions of the most recent Conferences of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change COP26 (Glasgow 2021) and COP28 (Dubai 2023) for the world energy and upcoming climate change are investigated.
A group of scenarios of anthropogenic impact on the global climate system is proposed, including the full implementation of Glasgow's decisions in the field of decarbonisation of the world economy, reduction of methane emissions and reforestation, as well as alternative scenarios for the development of world energy, based on low options for changing the world's population, in terms of preventing dangerous global climate change. Using the global carbon cycle and climate models developed at MPEI, changes in the chemical composition and thermal radiative balance of the Earth's atmosphere, as well as the global average air temperature for each of the scenarios, were simulated.
It is shown that only the full implementation of the full range of measures proposed in Glasgow to reduce the anthropogenic impact on the planet's climate system while maintaining the current growth rates of energy consumption and the world's population is able to keep warming below 1.5 ° C with reference to pre-industrial levels, but there are serious doubts concerning the practical implementation of the proposed program of decarbonisation of the world economy. At the same time, our findings suggest that development of natural demographic processes can restrain growth and ensure a decrease of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration even before the end of this century. In this case, the increase in global average temperature can be limited to a marginally safe level of 1.8 degrees as compared to the pre-industrial period without a large-scale restructuring of the world energy sector. Anyhow it is virtually certain that 1.5 °C threshold will be crossed within the next decade and the period of 1.5 °C temperature overshoot will last for over a century. As soon as by the end of this century global temperatures will have to be drawn back down by explicit removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere: a task requiring a build-up of negative emissions economy.
Natalia V. Popova
CHANGING OF GLOBAL KNOWLEDGE NETWORKS IN THE WORLD SYSTEM RECONFIGURATION: THE CASE OF RUSSIAN AND BRICS+ RESEARCH WITH INTERNATIONAL CO-AUTHORSHIP
Global networks of knowledge diffusion are both among the major products of globalization and its strongest factors, greatly contributing to its further development. However, in the course of the ongoing World System reconfiguration that is likely to intensify in the coming decades the global knowledge networks are bound to experience profound structural changes along with international cooperation in science and research in general. The paper views the current position of Russia in these networks and the recent dynamic changes in this position and the structure of Russian researchers’ international collaborations by focusing on the networks of international research co-authorship. At the first glance, the ongoing re-structurization of the system of Russian academic links with foreign countries might be attributed to the impact of sanctions, but this viewpoint fails to consider the dynamics of the global academic co-authorship network and the position of Russia therein during the past decades, which has been defined by the post-Soviet legacy and the abovementioned World System reconfiguration. Growing investments in the domestic R&D, improving research infrastructure, and enhancing the quality of research can all make the World System semi-peripheral and peripheral countries increasingly attractive R&D partners for each other. This factor is likely to contribute to the growth of the share of research collaborations among the countries outside the World System core.
Igor F. Kefeli, Roman S. Vykhodets, and Olga V. Plebanek
UPDATING COGNITIVE SECURITY IN A GLOBAL DIMENSION
The idea is substantiated that the advent of the anthropocene epoch as a modern stage of global history and global evolution in all the diversity of natural and socio-economic trends has led to an aggravation of global risks (environmental, geopolitical, economic, social and technological) and the phenomenon of global security in all its manifestations (international, economic, food, military, information, spiritual, cognitive, and others). The current situation necessitates the development of a theoretical and methodological basis for the study of global security in these areas and the development of specific recommendations that are positioned in asphatronics as a theory of global security. Over the past two decades, risks associated with the development of artificial intelligence and the expansion of cognitive operations in the military and civilian spheres have been actively “implanted” into the global risk group.
Special attention is paid to the actualization of the problem of countering cognitive operations, which led to the emergence of a new, sixth, domain of hybrid warfare, namely cognitive. Cognitive warfare involves global risks of both a purely technological and geopolitical, economic, socio-anthropological and existential order. Cognitive warfare is interpreted as a war of ideologies, and the essence is to seize control of people, organizations, nations, and manipulate the consciousness and subconscious of a person.
The article substantiates the position that asphatronics, which claims to be a theory of global security, should be developed in close connection with cognitology (a system of cognitive sciences), one of the areas of research of which is information, psychological and cognitive security.
Vadim Ustyuzhanin, Julia Zinkina Andrey Korotayev
GLOBAL AGING AND DEMOGRAPHIC POLICIES: A RECONSIDERATION
Population aging is expected to affect large parts of the world in the coming decades, causing profound changes in various social, economic and financial institutions and infrastructure networks. Raising the old-age retirement (pension) age has been the most common response of the affected countries to this challenge, but it has proven neither sufficient nor popular among the respective populations. In this paper we analyze the projected magnitude of global aging under different fertility trajectories. It is shown that for many countries of the world the sustainability of national pension systems will become untenable if they do not manage to achieve substantial increases in fertility. Thus, these countries should implement in the near future effective fertility-supporting measures to avoid major social crises. As we see, fertility-support policies have the potential to be a strikingly powerful tool in offsetting some of the most adverse consequences of population aging.
Wenjie Huang
CHASING ECONOMIC PROSPERITY OR POLITICAL STABILITY: CHINA'S UNBALANCED HIGH-SPEED RAIL DIPLOMACY IN SOUTHEAST ASIA
Since China proposed the going-out strategy of HSRs in 2009, China’s HSR diplomacy has aroused heated debate on China’s intentions. From an economic-diplomacy perspective, this article tries to understand China’s HSR diplomacy in SEA from four dimensions: context, process, theatre, and outcomes. Available second-hand data shows that with a consistent tendency as China’s overall economic diplomacy over the past 70 years, China’s HSR diplomacy tends to be more economical than political-oriented. However, in SEA, China’s growing economic influence is accompanied by a declining regional reputation. China’s increasingly pragmatic attitude in protecting its overseas economic interest without sufficient effort to handle local resistance mainly caused by environmental and social factors led to local Sinophobia sentiment. The conflict represents a microcosm of China’s railway projects abroad under the BRI, wh ere the country is attempting to reconcile the pursuit of economic benefits with the maintenance of a positive global image.
Nasser Ul Islam & Dr. Showkat Hussain Dar
ARAB SPRING AND ITS ROLE IN THE STRUGGLE FOR CITIZENSHIP: AN ANALYSIS
The academic scholarship on understanding Arab Spring and its role in constructing citizenship has been little. In the context of this, the paper will endeavor to study the Arab Spring in light of its contribution to the civic empowerment of the Arab world. I want to argue that one of the greatest ways to understand political contestation in the Middle East is through the lens of citizenship. Ultimately, politics revolves around the range, content, and depth of citizenship. Since citizenship rights have emerged as the primary concern in the region during the past three decades due to the enormous political expansion, this has become even more evident. A new social contract based on rights is the only way to fill the void left by the breakdown of the authoritarian bargaining contract. The paper will analyze how this Nahda (Renaissance) played its part in the debate of citizenship in the Arab world and how the debate of citizenship evolved during the Arab Spring and afterward. The paper has theoretically and analytically found that the Arab Spring was the immediate outcome of various reasons particularly the demand for citizenship rights which were long due owing to the contemporary political landscape.
Misbah Zia, Imran Naseem, Ishfaq Ahmad, Muhammad Bahar Khan, and Khalid Zaman
EXAMINING THE DYNAMICS OF THE IRAN-PAKISTAN GAS PIPELINE: IMPLICATIONS FOR ENERGY COOPERATION, GEOPOLITICS, AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT
This study examines the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline's energy cooperation, geopolitical dynamics, and regional development effects. The study used a mixed-method approach to assess the pipeline's pros and cons. Results demonstrate increased energy stability, decreased LPG reliance, additional energy sources, and lower energy prices. However, the pipeline poses geopolitical risks to Baluchistan's security, political upheaval, economic consequences, regional hostility, and U.S. sanctions. Despite these challenges, the pipeline might reduce gas shortages, help industry temporarily, boost trade between the two nations, improve regional cooperation, create jobs, and lessen unemployment. To build the pipeline, international cooperation is needed to overcome sanctions, financial incentives, regional stakeholders' active participation, technological breakthroughs, and international lobbying.
A. N. Chumakov, I. Kuchuradi., W. McBride, L.M. Scaratnino
PHILOSOPHY FACING WORLD PROBLEMS IN THE 21ST CENTURY
The article is devoted to the philosophical understanding of the current problems of global development and the responsibility of philosophers for the state of affairs in the modern world. The article is based on interviews with three widely known and most influential world-class philosophers, each of whom was the President of the World Federation of Philosophical Societies (FISP) for 5 years; and now they are Honorary Presidents of this international philosophical organization. The publication of such an article is an extraordinary event, since it presents the most authoritative opinions on the current problems of our time, which concern not only philosophers, but also specialists in the field of global studies, who represent various fields of science and practice.